Player error: what is it and how to avoid it?

In this piece, we’ll take a closer look at the concept of “player error” and talk about the expected deviation in betting. Pari betting – This is the world of right risk, our predictions and luck. Understanding mistakes and their inevitability in the betting world is the key to winning. We will also find out how to use the Law of Large Numbers correctly in our calculations and consider the “nine-stroke example.

As early as the 17th century, Jakob Bernoulli formulated his Law of Large Numbers which states that the greater the sample of different outcomes of an event, the more accurate is its true probability. More than 400 years have passed since then, but many bettors are still confused by this statement. It is called “gambler’s error” and we will try to understand what it is and how to avoid it.

The Law of Large Numbers

Bernoulli used a coin in his experiment and assumed that the probability of getting an “eagle” is initially 50%. He was able to calculate experimentally that with repeated tossing, the percentage of heads and tails tended to 50%, but the difference between the numbers themselves increased as the research continued.

Many bettors fail to understand and accept the second part of Bernoulli’s conclusions and this has led to the “gambler’s error. The vast majority of people, if they get nine “tails” in a row, will argue that the next one will be heads. And this is considered a major misconception – the coin has no memory and the probability of both outcomes at any given time being tossed remains at the 50% mark.

Bernoulli’s experience has shown that with a very large sample of repetitions – for example, after a million tosses – the outcomes will be distributed approximately equally for each of the options. However, the larger the sample, the greater the deviations in the quantitative distribution – so an “eagle” can fall 500 times in a row and it will not be considered an anomaly. The following formula can be used to better understand this process:

0.5 х √ (1 000 000) = 500

In the nine-throw option, the sample is not so large that we can say that this rule applies. However, on a sample of a million repetitions, it is quite natural to get such large numbers. Hence the conclusion that nine consecutive “eagles” or “tails” can theoretically be a fragment of such a millionth sample and the number of outcomes at such a short distance can not equalize for a long time.

Distribution in sports betting

The same principle may well operate in gambling, including – in sports betting. The most striking example can be considered roulette in the casino. Many players mistakenly believe that the number of falls on the ball “red” or “black” necessarily equalized in a short segment, although this is not so, as we have found out earlier. Such tactics can lead you to total ruin and “gambler’s error” in connection with this received the second name – “Monte Carlo error”.

Back in 1913 in a casino in Monte Carlo, “black” fell 26 times in a row. After 15 repetitions all present began to bet hard on the “red”, hoping that the series is about to end. This example is a vivid confirmation of “gambler’s error” and once again makes it clear that the roulette wheel has no influence on the possible outcome.

The same is true of slot machines which are essentially just random number generators with a fixed payout schedule (RTP). You’ve probably seen the picture more than once where a person who has “invested” a large amount of money in a particular machine desperately expects it to start producing good combinations because “it’s about time”. In fact, such people would have to wait an indefinite amount of time to wait for the machine to start giving out the programmed combinations.

To summarize our material for today, Jacob Bernoulli’s law applies not only to the coin rule, but also directly to sports betting. You shouldn’t expect any series to be interrupted just because you think it’s been going on too long. Once you start taking these big number rules into account and abandon the law of averages, your business will go in the direction you want it to go.

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